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LAST UPDATE: June 12, 2025


Bessent says reciprocal tariff pause could be extended for some nations

WSJ

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs may be extended beyond July for those countries or blocs (e.g., EU) that demonstrate good-faith trade negotiation.

Insight

This flexible stance could maintain momentum in global trade negotiations while avoiding economic shock from sudden tariff hikes, but may apply selective pressure depending on diplomatic ties.

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Bessent Credits Trump Policies for ‘Substantial’ CPI Improvement

Bloomberg

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributed the slowdown in U.S. inflation to President Trump’s policies, stating they represented a break from a “decades-old status quo,” during congressional testimony.

Insight

Bessent’s attribution of inflation improvement to Trump-era policies reflects the administration’s narrative strategy to link economic gains directly to its agenda, aiming to bolster political capital ahead of upcoming budget debates.

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Bessent Predicts US Budget Deficit Will Approach 7% This Year

Bloomberg Tax (via Daily Tax Report)

Bessent projected that the current fiscal year’s DEFICIT will range from 6.5% to 6.7% of GDP—a third consecutive year above 6%—blaming expanded spending and opposing projections from previous years.

Insight

A 7% GDP deficit highlights intense fiscal pressure; by publicly assigning blame, Bessent may be positioning to justify budgetary reforms or revenue measures while shaping the political narrative ahead of reconciliation negotiation.

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US monthly budget deficit falls to $316 billion as tariffs boost customs receipts

Reuters

The Treasury reported a drop in the May budget deficit to $316 billion, attributing part of the improvement to increased customs revenues from tariffs.

Insight

This short-term boost highlights how trade policy can temporarily shore up federal revenues—but as goods flow and trade relationships evolve, fiscal benefits may be fleeting without broader structural reforms.

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US inflation rose less than expected to 2.4% in May

FT

In May, U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation increased to 2.4%, below analysts’ projections, supported by moderating energy prices and resilient services inflation tapering.

Insight

This slower-than-expected inflation reading strengthens arguments for a more cautious Federal Reserve—potentially reducing the urgency for interest rate hikes and reinforcing emerging confidence in disinflation.

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Trump Renews Call for Bumper Fed Rate Cut

WSJ

On June 11, former President Trump again demanded a full percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve following strong May CPI data, accusing the Fed’s current policy of “monetary malpractice.”

Insight

Trump’s aggressive call for rate cuts underscores his ongoing influence and alignment with markets’ desire for lower rates, while framing high interest costs as politically driven rather than macroeconomically necessary.

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JD Vance Joins Trump in Criticizing Fed, Says Not Cutting Rates Is ‘Monetary Malpractice’

WSJ

Vice President JD Vance publicly echoed Trump, labeling the Fed’s refusal to cut rates as “monetary malpractice,” following the modest May CPI data.

Insight

With two senior officials framing the Fed’s caution as malpractice, the administration seeks to shift central bank accountability, potentially influencing its next move.

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Trump tariffs may remain in effect while appeals proceed, US appeals court rules

Reuters

A federal appeals court has allowed Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs—including on Canada, China, Mexico—to remain enforced during appeal. The en banc hearing is set for July 31 .

Insight

The ruling sustains the administration’s leverage in ongoing trade talks, maintaining economic uncertainty; the case’s high-stakes legal framing elevates its political significance.

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Bessent Says ‘Remains to Be Seen’ Whether Tax Bill Adds to Debt

Bloomberg

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee, declined to confirm whether the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” would increase the national debt, stating “it remains to be seen,” although he did not dispute projections suggesting a rise.

Insight

Bessent’s measured response reflects political prudence: he avoids taking a stance that could undermine the bill ahead of Senate debate while steering clear of committing to its fiscal implications—signaling strategic ambiguity in public messaging.

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Senate GOP Clashes With House on Food Aid Cuts in Trump Tax Bill

Bloomberg

Senate Republicans are splitting with the House over a provision in Trump’s tax bill that would shift a portion of SNAP costs onto states (5–25%), with moderates seeking to soften the cuts to protect vulnerable populations.

Insight

The clash highlights internal GOP tensions between conservatives eager for fiscal savings and moderates concerned about protecting low-income voters, signaling potential compromise or delay in broader tax-and-spending negotiations.

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Treasury’s Bessent will attend G7 with Trump, expects to meet with Carney

Reuters

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that he will travel with President Trump to the G7 summit in Canada and anticipates meeting with Canadian PM Mark Carney to discuss global financial and trade issues.

Insight

Bessent’s participation underscores the administration’s intention to engage proactively on global economic coordination, using the G7 platform to address trade imbalances and reinforce ties, particularly with Canada.

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Protests Spread to New York, Chicago After LA Imposes Curfew

Bloomberg

Protests over ICE raids in Los Angeles continued into the evening with an imposed curfew, prompting arrests and leading to similar demonstrations emerging in New York and Chicago.

Insight

The spread of protests illustrates growing national discontent with federal immigration enforcement tactics; the deployment of curfews risks inflaming tensions and increasing scrutiny of state-federal response dynamics.

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