Global Economy News
LAST UPDATE: June 28, 2025
Extreme Poverty Becoming More Concentrated in Conflict Countries, Warns World Bank
A World Bank report warns that 421 M people (nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor) live in fragile/conflict-affected countries (FCS). Per capita GDP in these nations has fallen by 1.8% annually since 2020, compared to 2.9% growth elsewhere .
Insight
The findings reveal a sharp divergence: conflict zones are being left behind in global poverty reduction, underscoring that peace and stability are prerequisites for developmental gains. Targeted aid and institutional reforms are essential.
World Bank urges aid for economies in conflict as US pushes cuts
The World Bank urges increased aid, debt relief, and technical assistance for fragile/conflict-affected economies, home to 1 billion people, as the U.S. retreats from funding. Extreme poverty is rising, with 420 M living on less than $3/day.
Insight
This appeal signals growing concern over neglect in conflict zones. Without sustained international support, gains in poverty reduction may unravel, risking new cycles of instability and humanitarian crises.
EU and US Confident They Will Reach Tariff Deal by July Deadline
The EU and U.S. are optimistic about clinching a tariff/trade pact before the U.S. July 9 deadline, avoiding potential retaliatory tariffs. EU leaders are reportedly willing to accept minor imbalances to prevent an escalation.
Insight
The agreement would defuse trade tensions and secure supply chains—especially in autos and agriculture. Mutual compromise shows strategic interest in preserving transatlantic economic cohesion ahead of looming tariffs.
Trump says Spain will come through on NATO spending
Former US President Donald Trump, at the Hague NATO summit on June 25, asserted that Spain will meet NATO’s proposed 5% of GDP defense spending, despite Spain currently targeting only 2.1%. He threatened to impose higher trade tariffs on Spain if it does not comply.
Insight
Trump’s hard-line stance highlights his strategy of using economic leverage to enforce NATO burden-sharing. It may pressure Spain but risks escalating transatlantic trade tensions.
OPEC+ Is Set to Weigh Another Super‑Sized Oil Output Boost
OPEC+ is expected to approve an additional crude output increase of approximately 411,000 bpd in August 2025, as part of a broader expansion totaling nearly 1.8 M bpd this year. Saudi Arabia is leading the move to regain market share.
Insight
The production surge signals OPEC+ intention to influence global oil prices and challenge U.S. shale’s dominance. It also reflects coordination among members to manage supply amid uncertain demand.
South Africa presses US on G‑20 absence as leaders summit looms
South Africa, the current G‑20 president, is seeking clarity from the U.S. regarding its commitment to upcoming G‑20 events, as U.S. officials have boycotted recent preparatory meetings.
Insight
South Africa’s diplomatic outreach underscores concern that reduced U.S. engagement may undermine the G‑20’s effectiveness and shift influence toward emerging economies.
