Middle East & Central Asia News
LAST UPDATE: July 11, 2025
Egypt’s central bank keeps key interest rates unchanged
On July 10, 2025, Egypt’s central bank held the overnight deposit rate at 24% and the lending rate at 25%, pausing its recent rate‑cut cycle despite easing inflation (14.9% in June vs 38% in Sept 2023). Economic recovery remained robust at ~4.8% in Q1 2025.
Insight
The pause signals cautious optimism: the bank is wary of reigniting inflation while supporting growth. Balancing reform‑linked recovery with macro stability remains its priority.
Armenia and Azerbaijan hold substantive talks, no big breakthrough
Leaders Pashinyan and Aliyev met in Abu Dhabi—their first formal encounter since approving a draft peace deal in March 2025. Discussions focused on border delimitation and confidence‑building, described as “result‑oriented” and “highly constructive,” though no major breakthrough was reported.
Insight
Continued dialogue shows commitment to peace, though thorny issues like constitutional references and land corridors remain. Ongoing diplomatic engagement is a positive sign for stability in the South Caucasus.
UAE ready for another oil capacity boost if markets require
The UAE plans to raise oil production capacity beyond its 2027 target of 5 million barrels per day if the market demands—potentially up to 6 million bpd. It received a higher OPEC+ quota after expanding capacity from 3 m bpd to 4.85 m bpd.
Insight
The UAE’s flexibility in capacity underscores its strategic positioning in OPEC+ and readiness to fill global supply gaps. Investors should watch whether this tempers volatility or prompts supply overshoot.
German foreign minister expresses concern about human rights under Taliban
German FM Johann Wadephul stated in Vienna that Germany maintains only technical contact with Taliban representatives and is “seriously concerned” about humanitarian and human rights, especially for women and girls. Germany will continue vocal monitoring. Meanwhile, its interior minister seeks an agreement with the Taliban over deporting Afghan migrants.
Insight
Germany’s stance reflects a careful balance: engaging the Taliban on critical issues without legitimizing them politically. Linking human rights with migration policy may be a double‑edged tactic.
