Ukraine-Russia News
LAST UPDATE: September 25, 2025
EU weighs tariffs on Russian oil imports
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced that the EU is considering imposing tariffs on Russian oil imports as part of an accelerated plan to end all Russian energy imports by the end of 2025. This move is intended to cut off funding for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The proposal must be agreed upon by all member states.
Insight
This potential move marks a significant escalation in the EU’s economic sanctions against Russia, aiming to completely sever a key source of revenue for the country. If implemented, these tariffs would create a more aggressive and potentially faster approach to energy independence, but they could also create new challenges for energy supply and prices within the bloc.
EU ‘reparations loan’ to Ukraine could be up to 130 billion euros, officials say
The European Union is preparing a “reparations loan” of up to €130 billion for Ukraine, which would be backed by frozen Russian assets. The loan is intended to help finance Ukraine’s defense and would only be repaid once Russia compensates for the damage caused by the war. The final amount is subject to an IMF assessment of Ukraine’s needs.
Insight
This initiative represents a creative and impactful way for the EU to provide substantial financial support to Ukraine without direct use of taxpayer money. It also sets a new precedent for using frozen assets of a sanctioned country to fund a war-torn nation, linking financial support to the concept of reparations.
Russia Plans ‘Acceptable’ 2026 Budget Deficit Amid War Spending
Russia’s government has approved a draft budget for 2026-2028 that projects a deficit of 1.6% of GDP in 2026. This deficit is deemed “acceptable” by the Finance Minister, even as the country continues to allocate significant funds to military spending for the war in Ukraine. The budget projects increased revenues and a reliance on non-oil and gas income.
Insight
The Russian government’s confidence in managing a budget deficit while sustaining high military spending suggests a belief in the resilience of its economy despite international sanctions. The reliance on non-oil and gas revenues indicates a strategic effort to diversify its income base and reduce its vulnerability to fluctuations in global energy markets.
Russian finance ministry proposes raising VAT to help fund Ukraine war
Russia’s Finance Ministry has proposed raising the value-added tax (VAT) to 22% from 20% in 2026 to help fund military spending for the war in Ukraine. This proposed tax hike is part of the country’s fiscal strategy to maintain financial stability amid the high costs of the ongoing conflict.
Insight
The proposal to raise the VAT signals the financial strain the war is placing on Russia’s economy. This move to shift the burden of war funding onto consumers highlights the government’s need for a stable and predictable revenue stream, even if it could lead to increased inflation and reduced consumer purchasing power.
Zelensky says NATO membership not automatic protection, praises Trump after shift
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed doubt that NATO membership would automatically guarantee his country’s security, stating that international institutions are too weak. However, he praised US President Donald Trump after a meeting in which Trump said Ukraine could win the war. Trump’s comments mark a significant shift from his previous stance, where he expressed skepticism about Ukraine’s chances of victory.
Insight
Zelensky’s pragmatic comments about NATO’s limitations reflect a sober assessment of the current geopolitical landscape. His public praise for Trump, despite previous tensions, is a strategic move to maintain vital US support and capitalize on the US President’s changed stance.
NATO Allies Are at Odds Over How to Respond to Russia’s Threats
NATO allies are at odds over how to respond to Russia’s recent threats and “gray zone” aggression, such as a larger drone attack against a member state. While a “Coalition of the Willing” led by France and the UK is advocating for a more robust response, others are concerned about triggering a full-scale war. The debate underscores the challenges of applying NATO’s collective security commitment in an era of ambiguous threats.
Insight
The discord among NATO allies highlights the fundamental challenges of collective defense in the face of modern, non-traditional warfare. This internal debate shows that the alliance’s ability to act decisively is being tested by Russia’s tactics, which intentionally blur the line between peacetime and war.
