Latin America News
LAST UPDATE: September 27, 2025
IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Honduras on fourth review of credit programs
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced it has reached a staff-level agreement with Honduras on the fourth review of its credit facilities. This agreement is a significant step, paving the way for a disbursement of approximately $120 million to the country later this year.
Insight
The staff-level agreement indicates the IMF is satisfied with the progress of Honduras’s economic program and reforms, which is a positive signal of financial stability and access to further external funding for the country.
Canada’s GDP rebounds in July after three months of contraction
Canada’s monthly GDP grew 0.2% in July driven by mining, manufacturing and wholesale trade after three consecutive months of decline. The economy avoided technical recession as the second quarter saw 1.6% annualized contraction.
Insight
The rebound suggests Canada may avoid recession, though preliminary August estimates show flat growth, indicating continued economic fragility amid US trade tensions.
Canada budget deficit over first four months of 2024/25 rises to C$7.79 bln
Canada recorded a C$7.79 billion budget deficit for the first four months of fiscal 2024/25, slightly higher than C$7.30 billion in the same period last year. Program expenses rose 3.0% while public debt charges fell marginally by 0.7%.
Insight
Rising deficit reflects faster government expenditure growth outpacing revenues, though custom import duties increased 162.4% due to retaliatory tariffs on the US.
Argentina Debt Has Best Week Since 2022 on ‘Circuit Breaker’ Aid
Argentine assets rebounded strongly with peso surging 10%, stocks jumping 7% and government bonds gaining 22% after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged financial lifeline. The support came amid agricultural export windfall of $7 billion.
Insight
US intervention represents unprecedented support for Milei’s government, demonstrating geopolitical alignment that could stabilize markets but raises questions about long-term sustainability.
Argentina Treasury taps market to rebuild reserves after agro dollar windfall
Argentina’s Treasury used agricultural export proceeds to purchase around $700 million in dollars, helping stabilize the peso at 1,330 per dollar after hitting record lows. The temporary tax break spurred farm sector to commit $7 billion in export sales.
Insight
The Treasury’s currency intervention represents a soft devaluation strategy, taking advantage of temporary agricultural windfalls to rebuild reserves before more structural reforms.
Fearing US invasion, Venezuela to hold emergency drills
Venezuela will conduct disaster preparedness drills amid US military deployment in the Caribbean, as President Maduro considers emergency powers. Trump deployed eight warships and a submarine for anti-drug operations that have killed over a dozen people.
Insight
The drills reflect escalating tensions between Venezuela and the US, with Maduro potentially using emergency powers to restrict freedoms ahead of mounting geopolitical pressure.
Argentina 2025: del FMI al respaldo de EE.UU., un nuevo escenario macroeconómico
The macroeconomic outlook for Argentina in 2025 is being reshaped by a pivot from reliance on the IMF to seeking stronger backing from the United States. This strategic shift by the Milei government could open up alternative financing options and a new economic program. The political alignment with the U.S. is viewed as key to navigating future debt payments and achieving stability.
Insight
A closer alliance with the U.S. could grant Argentina greater policy leeway than a traditional IMF agreement, potentially boosting investor confidence in the short term. However, this strategy also introduces geopolitical dependencies into economic management. The ultimate success will still hinge on the implementation of credible and sustainable domestic fiscal reforms, as political backing alone cannot fix structural imbalances.
