Insight

Russia’s escalating air campaign represents a strategic shift toward maximum psychological pressure on Ukrainian civilian population as traditional military advances stall, demonstrating Putin’s willingness to intensify targeting of non-military infrastructure despite international condemnation. The deliberate targeting of maternity wards and medical facilities violates fundamental principles of international humanitarian law and suggests Russia is abandoning any pretense of distinction between military and civilian targets in its campaign to break Ukrainian resistance. The timing of these massive attacks coincides with Trump’s expressed frustration over lack of progress in peace negotiations, potentially serving dual purposes of pressuring Ukraine while testing American resolve under the new administration. The scale of recent attacks – over 1,400 drones and 78 missiles in one week – indicates Russia has successfully rebuilt its missile production capacity despite international sanctions, raising questions about the effectiveness of Western economic pressure. These intensified bombardments also reflect Moscow’s recognition that time may be working against Russian interests as Western military aid continues flowing to Ukraine, prompting a strategy of maximum destruction before potential negotiated settlement talks gain momentum.