US News
LAST UPDATE: June 18, 2025
Weak US retail sales, manufacturing output point to softening economy
U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May—the largest drop in four months—driven by a 3.5% decline in auto purchases and lower gasoline prices. Manufacturing output also declined, signaling weakening demand amid trade tensions and cool weather.
Insight
The data suggest early signs of economic slowdown, with reduced consumer spending and production. This could influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates and reflect tariff-related headwinds.
Forecaster says US House version of Trump bill to cost $2.8 trillion despite economic gains
A nonpartisan policy group warned that the U.S. House edition of Trump’s proposed bill—promising tax cuts and border funding—could add ~$2.8 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, even factoring in growth assumptions .
Insight
The forecast underlines the fiscal risks of sweeping tax-relief tied to growth that may not materialize, emphasizing the need for more realistic budgeting.
Fed policymakers meet as new data raises growth concerns, geopolitical risks rise
Ahead of their June meeting, US Federal Reserve officials warned that recent weak U.S. data and rising global economic and geopolitical uncertainty could temper prospects for rate cuts .
Insight
Growing caution within the Fed suggests they may delay easing until clearer evidence emerges on growth and inflation, highlighting sensitivity to external risks.
Fed to Meet June 25 on Changes to Supplementary Leverage Ratio
The Federal Reserve plans to finalize, during its June 25 meeting, new rules to ease the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) for large banks—aligning with Basel benchmarks amid pressure to support credit flows .
Insight
Relaxing the SLR indicates a prioritization of liquidity for big banks, helping sustain lending but raising questions about long-term systemic risk.
Senate GOP’s Tax Megabill Faces Trouble on Left and Right
The Senate GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBBA), a sweeping tax and spending package, is encountering resistance across the party. Conservatives like Ron Johnson, Josh Hawley, Rick Scott, and Rand Paul demand deeper deficits cuts and more Medicaid reform. Moderates, including Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Jim Justice, object to Medicaid provider tax reductions and rolling back green-energy credits. The July 4 passage goal looks increasingly uncertain due to internal divisions. (politico.com, wsj.com, politico.com)
Insight
These fractures reveal a party split: fiscal hawks seek sharper savings, while moderates push back on social and healthcare cuts. Consensus hinges on negotiating health provisions and tax deductions—failure to align could derail the bill ahead of mid‑summer deadlines.
Senate Is Poised to Pass Stablecoin Bill as Crypto Eyes a Bigger Prize
The U.S. Senate is nearing passage of bipartisan stablecoin legislation to create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, possibly catalyzing broader crypto regulation .
Insight
Passing stablecoin rules could legitimize digital dollars, encouraging institutional investment and laying the regulatory groundwork for wider crypto adoption.
