US News
LAST UPDATE: June 21, 2025
Still early to assess tariff impact on economy, Fed report says
The Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” noted that it remains too soon to gauge how recently imposed tariffs will influence economic activity, as firms continue monitoring supply chains and costs .
Insight
The Fed’s caution signals uncertainty in global trade policy. Firms’ hesitancy to invest amid potential cost pressures could delay consumer price effects and complicate policy forecasting.
Waller Says Fed Could Cut Interest Rates as Soon as July
Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that if inflation figures continue to decline, the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates as early as July. He stressed responsiveness to economic data.
Insight
Waller’s openness to a July rate cut adds momentum to the market’s hopes for easing monetary policy, but ongoing inflation volatility could delay or modify the Fed’s path.
Fed’s Barkin: No rush to cut, can’t dismiss inflation risks from tariffs
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin warned caution against rushing rate cuts, noting that tariffs and trade disruptions could fuel inflation, requiring more data before easing.
Insight
Barkin’s caution signals that trade-driven inflation risks remain a constraint, and supports a more balanced, data-driven approach to adjusting interest rates.
Fed’s Forecast ‘Fog’ Adds More Clouds to Stock Market Outlook
Barron’s reports that lack of clarity in the Fed’s economic forecasting has undermined investor confidence, resulting in higher market volatility amid mixed signals.
Insight
Persistent uncertainty around Fed policy creates challenges for equity markets, requiring investors to brace for potential erratic trading and revise expectations.
U.S. Leading Indicators Signal Further Economic Slowdown
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell for a 16th consecutive month, signaling broad-based economic weakness. The decline was driven by falling building permits, consumer confidence, new orders, and higher jobless claims.
Insight
The ongoing dip reinforces expectations of a decelerating U.S. economy. While not confirming a recession, it suggests persistent headwinds that could justify near-term policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
U.S. Prepares Action Targeting Allies’ Chip Plants in China
The Biden administration is considering restricting access to advanced chipmaking equipment for Chinese semiconductor fabs operated by U.S. allies, such as those by TSMC (Taiwan), Samsung (South Korea), and ASML (Netherlands).
Insight
The move signals a tightening of tech export controls to prevent U.S.-origin tools from indirectly supporting China’s chip ambitions. It may strain ties with allies and deepen global semiconductor supply chain tensions.
The Dollar Is Hanging On to Its Haven Role by a Thread, Survey Shows
A Bloomberg Pulse survey found that a slight majority of 251 respondents believe the US dollar may regain its safe-haven status amid the Iran–Israel conflict, though sentiment remains fragile. Many expect the dollar spot index to decline over the coming month despite recent geopolitical support (bloomberg.com).
Insight
The results underscore a precarious balance: while geopolitical tensions offer short-term relief for the dollar, structural concerns—like U.S. fiscal strain, underweight investor positioning, and declining global confidence—threaten its long-term reserve status.
U.S. Leading Indicators Signal Further Economic Slowdown
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell for the sixth straight month in May—down 0.1% to 99.0—driven by weak manufacturing orders, consumer sentiment, building permits, and rising jobless claims. Although recession isn’t forecast, the signals point to a marked slowdown.
Insight
Persistent decline in forward-looking indicators implies sustained weakness ahead. Policymakers and investors should prepare for subpar growth through 2025 and into 2026 amid trade-related pressures.
