Middle East & Central Asia News
LAST UPDATE: June 27, 2025
IMF revises 2025 Saudi growth upwards to 3.5% on easing OPEC+ output cuts
The IMF raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Saudi Arabia from 3.0% to 3.5%, citing stronger domestic demand from Vision 2030 investments and reduced OPEC+ oil cuts .
Insight
The revision underscores Saudi Arabia’s successful diversification efforts and infrastructure-led growth strategy; events like 2029 Asian Winter Games and 2034 World Cup appear to be pushing non‑oil GDP expansion.
Pakistan Eyes US Trade Deal Soon in Fast-Moving Talks
Pakistan government said trade negotiations with the US could conclude next week, focusing on reciprocal tariff cuts and greater Pakistani imports of US goods, including cotton; talks included discussion of investment in the Reko Diq mining project .
Insight
Amid a $3 billion surplus with the US and high 29% tariffs on its exports, Pakistan hopes these talks will ease trade barriers and draw US investment; success could strengthen economic resilience through diversification and foreign direct investment.
Kazakhstan says its oil exports to Germany will fall to 160,000 tons in June
KazMunayGaz forecast exports to Germany via Druzhba pipeline will drop from 230,000 t in May to 160,000 t in June, though total supplies for 2025 are still projected at ~2 million tonnes .
Insight
The decline reflects shifting pipeline capacity and possible logistical or pricing influences, yet Kazakhstan remains committed to maintaining robust annual export volumes—highlighting reliance on Russian transit infrastructure.
Vessels near Strait of Hormuz transmit unusual messages to prevent attacks
Amid lingering Israel‑Iran tensions and U.S. strikes on Iranian sites, 55 vessels sent 101 atypical nationality broadcasts (e.g., “China owned,” “Russian crude”) between June 12–24 to avoid being targeted .
Insight
These broadcasts underscore heightened maritime threat perceptions, with shipowners actively managing geopolitical risk through AIS identity spoofing; this may complicate regional security dynamics and AIS‑based monitoring.
