Latin America News
LAST UPDATE: July 12, 2025
Brazil downplays impact of US tariffs on 2025 growth
Brazil minimized concerns over proposed 50% U.S. tariffs starting August 1, 2025, projecting 2025 GDP growth around 2.5%. Sectors like aerospace and energy machinery may be hit, but trade diversification—with 28% exports to China vs. 12% to U.S.—offers resilience.
Insight
Brazil’s long-term diversification strategy cushions it against targeted U.S. tariffs, highlighting economic resilience built on shifting trade patterns.
Brazil raises forecast for 2025 GDP growth, sees slowdown next year
Brazil’s Finance Ministry raised its 2025 GDP forecast to 2.5% (from 2.4%) and expects 2026 growth at 2.4%, not factoring in new U.S. tariffs due to expected limited impact.
Insight
The slight upward revision shows optimism in domestic momentum, though authorities remain cautious about future external risks.
Canada’s unemployment rate drops to 6.9%, economy adds 83,100 jobs
Canada added 83,100 jobs in June 2025, its first gain since January, lowering unemployment to 6.9%. Gains led in wholesale/retail trade, manufacturing, healthcare. Participation rose; wages grew 3.2% y/y.
Insight
The strong job and wage growth suggest labour market strength, potentially delaying monetary easing by the Bank of Canada, though inflation trends will be crucial.
Trump’s Tariffs on Canada Not Priced Into Markets, CIBC Says
CIBC strategist Ian de Verteuil noted that markets haven’t priced in proposed tariffs raising Canadian exports from 25% to 35%, although this would affect only 10–15% of exports not under trade deals.
Insight
The lack of market pricing for this risk suggests investors may be overlooking selective but impactful trade vulnerabilities in specific sectors.
Canada Building Permits Climb 12% in May
Canada’s building permit value rose 12% in May to CAD 13.11 billion, driven by institutional construction, while residential permits saw small gains.
Insight
The surge, especially in institutional projects, signals improved business confidence in infrastructure investment, potentially supporting broader economic activity.
