Latin America News
LAST UPDATE: August 2, 2025
Colombia inflation seen rising in July and through end‑2025
Analysts expect inflation in Colombia to increase in July and remain above the central bank’s 3% target through the end of 2025, driven by rising food and housing costs (MarketScreener)
Insight
Elevated inflation expectations underscore persistent price pressures and may limit central bank flexibility—potentially requiring tighter policy measures even as growth concerns persist.
Chile’s economic activity misses forecasts in June
Chile’s economic activity in June rose 3.1% year-on-year, below the 3.9% market forecast. On a monthly basis, the IMACEC index declined by 0.4% (MarketScreener, TradingView)
Insight
The weaker-than-expected growth, despite a strong mining sector, suggests broader slowdown in domestic demand and signals challenges ahead for the central bank’s stimulus timing.
Mexico remittances down 16% in June
Remittances to Mexico dropped 16.2% in June from the same month a year earlier—the largest decline since 2012—due to fewer transactions and lower average values amid migrant fears in the U.S. (TradingView)
Insight
A sharp fall in remittance flows could weaken consumption in Mexico’s domestic economy and highlights the vulnerability of migrant-dependent households to U.S. immigration climate.
Peru consumer prices rose 0.23% on month in July
Peruvian consumer prices increased by 0.23% month-on-month in July, up from 0.13% in June. Annual inflation remains within the central bank’s target range despite rising food costs (TradingView)
Insight
Although inflation is modest, the month-on-month uptick signals emerging price pressures that policymakers will monitor against weak global demand and fiscal constraints.
Brazil fine‑tuning plan to help companies deal with US tariffs
The Brazilian government is preparing a contingency plan to support companies impacted by steep U.S. tariffs starting in August. The plan excludes tax exemptions and aims to maintain investment confidence (Reuters)
Insight
Brazil is proactively supporting affected exporters via policy relief amid geopolitical trade disruptions, balancing between economic continuity and political sovereignty.
Brazil’s industrial output resumes growth, but falls short of expectations in June
Brazil’s industrial production rose 0.1% in June from May—its first growth in two months—but remained below forecasts of 0.4%. Year-over-year output dropped 1.3% (TradingView, TradingView)
Insight
The modest rebound shows some stabilization, yet growth remains tepid and fragile—suggesting broader headwinds from trade uncertainty and domestic weak demand.
ANALYSIS‑Trump’s 50% Brazil coffee tariff expected to rejig trade, send more beans to China
The 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, effective August 6, will likely redirect global trade flows toward China and the EU, as U.S. demand for Brazilian beans shifts (Reuters)
Insight
This trade realignment may benefit emerging markets like China, but disrupt longstanding supply chains—underscoring the cost of tariff diplomacy as a geopolitical tool.
Brazil Judge Says Top Court Won’t Bow to Trump Sanctions
Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes declared that the judiciary will not yield to U.S. sanctions or foreign pressure tied to the Bolsonaro trial, rejecting any attempt to undermine judicial independence (Bloomberg.com, Yahoo!ニュース, AP News)
Insight
The ruling reflects a strong institutional reaction to external interference, reinforcing Brazil’s judicial autonomy and raising tensions in U.S.–Brazil relations.
